Trading Week Ahead: Restricted Oil Flows Push EU Inflation to 2.5%
With the Strait of Hormuz closed and Brent crude holding above $100, markets are pricing in prolonged reduced oil supplies. Surging oil has already pushed Eurozone inflation to 2.5%, trapping central banks in a severe stagflationary dilemma. Against this volatile backdrop, focus shifts entirely to the U.S., where critical updates on consumer spending, manufacturing, and the labor market will test the economy’s underlying resilience.
👉 U.S. Retail Sales
Consumer spending is forecast to rebound to 0.4% following a previous -0.2% contraction. A strong print reinforces economic resilience and supports the dollar, while another miss could accelerate dovish repricing and weigh heavily on the greenback.
👉 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
As a leading growth metric, this index provides vital insight into the broader economy. Any significant weakness will likely spark a strong bid for duration in bond markets, whereas a robust reading could cap yields and support a risk-on shift in equities.
👉 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
The event of the week. Job creation is expected to recover to a modest 56,000 after a sharp contraction of -92,000 previously. A solid beat will push back against recession fears and lift yields, while another negative reading could trigger severe risk-off flows across all major asset classes.
2:30 PM
CAD
GDP
4:00 PM
USD
JOLTS Job Openings
4:00 PM
USD
CB Consumer Confidence
2:15 PM
USD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
2:30 PM
USD
Retail Sales
4:00 PM
USD
ISM Manufacturing PMI
2:30 PM
USD
Average Hourly Earnings
2:30 PM
USD
Nonfarm Payrolls
2:30 PM
USD
Unemployment Rate
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/31/26 |
2:30 PM |
CAD
|
GDP |
|
4:00 PM |
USD
|
JOLTS Job Openings | |
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence | ||
| 04/01/26 |
2:15 PM |
USD
|
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
|
2:30 PM |
USD
|
Retail Sales | |
|
4:00 PM |
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI | |
| 04/03/26 |
2:30 PM |
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
|
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls | ||
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate |
*All times in the table are in GMT+2
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