Trading Week Ahead: Geopolitical Volatility
Geopolitical tensions continue to drive volatility across energy and safe-haven assets. This week, the focus shifts to whether a cooling US economy can justify a dovish Fed stance. With U.S. CPI, PCE and JOLTS data ahead, traders are bracing for sharp moves across the dollar and the yield curve.
👉 U.S. CPI
Headline MoM inflation is forecast to cool to 0.2% from a previous 0.3% rise. A hot print forces hawkish repricing and crushes duration, while a surprise miss could lift equities and weigh on the dollar.
👉 U.S. Core PCE
The Fed’s primary inflation gauge is forecast unchanged at 0.4% MoM. Any deviation will reset the yield curve and USD pairs instantly. A hotter print bolsters the "higher-for-longer" narrative and caps risk-on sentiment.
👉 JOLTS Job Openings
Labor demand remains a wildcard, with vacancies forecast to rebound to 6.840M from 6.542M. A cooling figure shifts the equity bias toward recession risk, whereas a resilient print keeps the greenback supported.
Date
Time
Instrument
Event
Tuesday, Mar. 10
Final GDP
Wednesday, Mar. 11
German CPI
US CPI
Thursday, Mar. 12
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Mar. 13
UK GDP
Unemployment Rate
US Core PCE
US GDP
JOLTS Job Openings
*All times in the table are in GMT+1
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