Published 8 months ago in
Trading Week Ahead
Trading Week Ahead: Powell, PMI & GDP Set the Stage for Volatility
Three key US macro events are set to drive market sentiment this week: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, Flash PMI data, and the final estimate of Q2 US GDP. Each could significantly influence interest rate expectations, move Treasury yields, and spark volatility across equities and the US dollar. Here’s what traders need to watch:
- Fed Chair Powell Speaks
The Fed delivered its first rate cut last week, and markets expect two more by early 2026. Powell’s Tuesday speech will be pivotal for clues on timing. A dovish tone could weigh on the dollar and lift equities, while a more cautious message may support yields and pressure risk sentiment. - US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
Flash PMIs, due Tuesday, will provide a timely snapshot of economic activity. Manufacturing PMI is expected to slip to 51.8 from 53.0, while Services PMI is forecast to ease to 53.8 from 54.5. Both remain in expansion, but weaker-than-expected readings could fuel slowdown concerns and strengthen the case for Fed easing. Stronger data would likely support the dollar and risk appetite. - US Final GDP
The final Q2 GDP print is due Thursday, with forecasts steady at 3.3%, in line with the prior estimate. While no revision is expected, any adjustment could shift the market’s view of US economic momentum. A stronger figure would likely lift Treasury yields and the dollar, while a weaker result could bolster expectations for additional policy easing later this year.
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