Published 6 months ago in Trading Week Ahead

Trading Week Ahead: FOMC & NFP Incoming

Markets face a pivotal week with three key US events in focus: FOMC minutes, Non-Farm Payrolls, and Flash PMIs. Sentiment has turned cautious as rate-cut hopes fade, with Fed officials striking a more guarded tone. The recent data blackout from the government shutdown added to uncertainty, but that backlog begins to clear, setting the stage for renewed volatility.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes
The upcoming release of the Fed’s meeting minutes will be closely watched for policy signals. If the tone suggests growing openness to rate cuts, the dollar could weaken, yields may fall, and equities might rally. However, if the minutes confirm a more cautious outlook, market risk appetite could diminish and the greenback may gain strength.

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The last jobs report before the government shutdown showed just 22,000 jobs added in August. With labor data delayed since then, this Thursday’s release is the first major update in weeks. A weak result may boost expectations of Fed rate cuts and pressure the dollar. A strong print could support the USD and weigh on risk assets.

• US Flash PMIs
November’s preliminary business-activity data is expected to show a modest slowdown. Services PMI is forecast to decline from 54.8 to 54.6, and manufacturing from 52.5 to 52.0. These real-time indicators are particularly influential after recent data gaps. Surprises in either direction could shift the economic narrative and drive volatility in currency and equity markets.