Trading Week Ahead: Restricted Oil Flows Push EU Inflation to 2.5%
With the Strait of Hormuz closed and Brent crude holding above $100, markets are pricing in prolonged reduced oil supplies. Surging oil has already pushed Eurozone inflation to 2.5%, trapping central banks in a severe stagflationary dilemma. Against this volatile backdrop, focus shifts entirely to the U.S., where critical updates on consumer spending, manufacturing, and the labor market will test the economy's underlying resilience.
👉 U.S. Retail Sales
Consumer spending is forecast to rebound to 0.4% following a previous -0.2% contraction. A strong print reinforces economic resilience and supports the dollar, while another miss could accelerate dovish repricing and weigh heavily on the greenback.
👉 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
As a leading growth metric, this index provides vital insight into the broader economy. Any significant weakness will likely spark a strong bid for duration in bond markets, whereas a robust reading could cap yields and support a risk-on shift in equities.
👉 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
The event of the week. Job creation is expected to recover to a modest 56,000 after a sharp contraction of -92,000 previously. A solid beat will push back against recession fears and lift yields, while another negative reading could trigger severe risk-off flows across all major asset classes.
Date
Time
Instrument
Event
Tuesday, Mar. 31
GDP
JOLTS Job Openings
CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Apr. 1
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Retail Sales
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Friday, Apr. 3
Average Hourly Earnings
Nonfarm Payrolls
Unemployment Rate
*All times in the table are in GMT+2
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