Trading Week Ahead: Geopolitical Volatility

Geopolitical tensions continue to drive volatility across energy and safe-haven assets. This week, the focus shifts to whether a cooling US economy can justify a dovish Fed stance. With U.S. CPI, PCE and JOLTS data ahead, traders are bracing for sharp moves across the dollar and the yield curve.

👉 U.S. CPI

Headline MoM inflation is forecast to cool to 0.2% from a previous 0.3% rise. A hot print forces hawkish repricing and crushes duration, while a surprise miss could lift equities and weigh on the dollar.

👉 U.S. Core PCE

The Fed’s primary inflation gauge is forecast unchanged at 0.4% MoM. Any deviation will reset the yield curve and USD pairs instantly. A hotter print bolsters the “higher-for-longer” narrative and caps risk-on sentiment.

👉 JOLTS Job Openings

Labor demand remains a wildcard, with vacancies forecast to rebound to 6.840M from 6.542M. A cooling figure shifts the equity bias toward recession risk, whereas a resilient print keeps the greenback supported.

03/10/26

Time

12:50 AM

Instrument

JPY

Event
Final GDP

03/11/26

Time

8:00 AM

Instrument

EUR

Event
German CPI

Time

1:30 PM

Instrument

USD

Event
US CPI

03/12/26

Time

1:30 PM

Instrument

USD

Event
Unemployment Claims

03/13/26

Time

8:00 AM

Instrument

GBP

Event
UK GDP

Time

1:30 PM

Instrument

CAD

Event
Unemployment Rate

Time

1:30 PM

Instrument

USD

Event
US Core PCE

Time

1:30 PM

Instrument

USD

Event
US GDP

Time

3:00 PM

Instrument

USD

Event
JOLTS Job Openings

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
03/10/26	12:50 AM	JPY	Final GDP
03/11/26	8:00 AM	EUR	German CPI
	1:30 PM	USD	US CPI
03/12/26	1:30 PM	USD	Unemployment Claims
03/13/26	8:00 AM	GBP	UK GDP
	1:30 PM	CAD	Unemployment Rate
		USD	US Core PCE
		USD	US GDP
	3:00 PM	USD	JOLTS Job Openings

*All times in the table are in GMT+1