Trading Week Ahead: Peace Talks Fail Ahead of U.S. PPI and EUR CPI
A temporary two-week ceasefire in the Middle East is already unravelling. Following failed peace talks in Pakistan, the U.S. has launched an immediate naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, instantly pushing Brent crude higher back near $100 a barrel.
With markets pricing in a renewed stagflation threat, the Q1 earnings season kicks off. Reports from Goldman Sachs and LVMH will offer the first evidence of how this ongoing energy shock is hitting corporate deal-making and global consumer demand.
To navigate this highly volatile environment, keep a close eye on the week's three most significant macro events:
👉 US PPI
As a leading gauge for wholesale inflation, this print is forecast to surge to 1.2% from a previous 0.7%. Given the recent explosion in energy costs, traders will parse this data. An upside surprise will further entrench stagflation fears, underpin the dollar, and keep the Federal Reserve pinned in a hawkish stance.
👉 GBP GDP
This primary growth metric will ultimately define the Bank of England's near-term interest rate path. A resilient figure provides the BoE with the runway to maintain restrictive policy, offering support to the pound. Conversely, a sharp contraction will accelerate dovish repricing and trigger risk-off flows out of sterling.
👉 EUR CPI
While the broad Eurozone inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged, the recent return of $100 oil ensures this release will be heavily scrutinized. A hotter-than-expected print traps the European Central Bank in a severe stagflationary dilemma, virtually guaranteeing a spike in volatility across euro crosses.
Date
Time
Instrument
Event
Monday, Apr. 13
Existing Home Sales
Tuesday, Apr. 14
PPI
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Wednesday, Apr. 15
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Thursday, Apr. 16
Unemployment Rate
GDP
CPI
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
*All times in the table are in CEST
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