Published 7 months ago in Trading Week Ahead

Trading Week Ahead: Massive Crypto Liquidations Hit the Market Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Markets ended last week on the back foot after Donald Trump’s renewed tariff against China triggered a sharp risk-off move, sparking a broad selloff and reigniting trade war fears. As sentiment remains fragile, the week ahead brings a high-stakes lineup of U.S. data, including CPI, Retail Sales and PPI, all poised to influence Fed rate expectations and inject fresh volatility into the market.

• CPI
All eyes will be on the September CPI data. Headline inflation is forecast to slow from 0.4% to 0.3% month-over-month, but any upside surprise could disrupt dovish expectations. Core inflation remains the key focus, and a stubbornly high reading may push Treasury yields higher and weigh on equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors like tech.

• Retail Sales
Retail Sales for September are set to drop from 0.6% to 0.4%, signaling a potential cooling in consumer momentum. However, if spending holds up better than expected, markets may interpret this as another sign of economic resilience, reducing the urgency for rate cuts. FX and equity traders should watch for any divergence from the forecast to reposition ahead of Q4.

• PPI
After a surprise contraction in August (-0.1%), September’s PPI is expected to rebound to 0.3%. This sharp turnaround may renew concerns about input cost inflation flowing into CPI data down the line. A stronger-than-expected print would reinforce hawkish pricing in rates markets and likely pressure equities and support the dollar.