Trading Week Ahead: Middle East Conflict Shocks Markets

Markets enter the week under the shadow of escalating Middle East tensions. Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the risk of wider regional spillover have sent oil sharply higher and pushed gold into rally mode, raising fresh concerns about renewed inflation pressure. Against this volatile backdrop, Eurozone CPI, U.S. Retail Sales, and Nonfarm Payrolls will test whether economic fundamentals can offset geopolitical risk.

👉 Eurozone CPI

Inflation is forecast to hold steady at 1.7%, unchanged from the previous reading. A surprise to the upside could lift EUR and push European yields higher. A softer print may strengthen expectations of further ECB easing and weigh on the euro.

👉 US Retail Sales

Consumer spending is expected to contract by 0.3% after a flat 0.0% print previously. A stronger-than-expected result could support USD and challenge rate cut bets. A deeper decline may pressure the dollar and boost risk sentiment.

👉 Nonfarm Payrolls

Job creation is forecast to slow sharply to 58,000 from 130,000 previously. A solid upside surprise would reinforce confidence in the U.S. economy and lift yields. A weak report could trigger broad volatility across currencies, bonds, and equities.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Monday, Mar. 2	4:00 PM	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, Mar. 3	11:00 AM	EUR	CPI
		GBP	Spring Forecast Statement
	1:30 PM	GBP	Annual Budget Release
Wednesday, Mar. 4	2:15 PM	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
	4:00 PM	USD	ISM Services PMI
Thursday, Mar. 5	2:30 PM	USD	Unemployment Claims
Friday, Mar. 6	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls
	USD	Unemployment Rate
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings
	3:30 PM	USD	Retail Sales

*All times in the table are in GMT+1