Trading Week Ahead: Markets Brace for Fed Signals and NFP Amid Shutdown

• FOMC Minutes
This week’s release of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes takes on added importance as markets look for clarity during a potential data blackout. With fewer macro reports available due to the shutdown, any dovish tilt in the Fed’s tone could weigh on the dollar and Treasury yields while lifting risk assets. Conversely, a reaffirmed hawkish stance may strengthen the greenback and put pressure on equities.

• Nonfarm Payrolls
Friday’s NFP report (previous: 22K, forecast: 51K) comes at a time of heightened political tension. The U.S. government shutdown could further amplify market sensitivity to economic data. A solid increase in employment would likely strengthen the dollar and push rate cut expectations further out, while a disappointing result could revive risk appetite and weaken the greenback.

Unemployment Rate
Although often overlooked compared to payroll data, the unemployment rate could still move markets, especially if other economic reports face shutdown-related delays. Analysts expect the rate to hold steady at 4.3%, matching the previous figure. A higher reading would signal a softening labor market and could bring the Fed closer to rate cuts. A lower print would likely support the view that rates need to stay higher for longer.