Trading Week Ahead: Geopolitical Volatility
Geopolitical tensions continue to drive volatility across energy and safe-haven assets. This week, the focus shifts to whether a cooling US economy can justify a dovish Fed stance. With U.S. CPI, PCE and JOLTS data ahead, traders are bracing for sharp moves across the dollar and the yield curve.
👉 U.S. CPI
Headline MoM inflation is forecast to cool to 0.2% from a previous 0.3% rise. A hot print forces hawkish repricing and crushes duration, while a surprise miss could lift equities and weigh on the dollar.
👉 U.S. Core PCE
The Fed’s primary inflation gauge is forecast unchanged at 0.4% MoM. Any deviation will reset the yield curve and USD pairs instantly. A hotter print bolsters the "higher-for-longer" narrative and caps risk-on sentiment.
👉 JOLTS Job Openings
Labor demand remains a wildcard, with vacancies forecast to rebound to 6.840M from 6.542M. A cooling figure shifts the equity bias toward recession risk, whereas a resilient print keeps the greenback supported.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Mar. 10 |
00:50 AM |
JPY
|
Final GDP |
| Wednesday, Mar. 11 |
08:00 AM |
EUR
|
German CPI |
|
01:30 PM |
USD
|
US CPI | |
| Thursday, Mar. 12 |
USD
|
Unemployment Claims | |
| Friday, Mar. 13 |
08:00 AM |
GBP
|
UK GDP |
|
01:30 PM |
CAD
|
Unemployment Rate | |
|
USD
|
US Core PCE | ||
|
USD
|
US GDP | ||
|
03:00 PM |
USD
|
JOLTS Job Openings |
*All times in the table are in GMT+1
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