Trading Week Ahead: Who Moves First, the Fed or the Market?

This week’s macro data could shape market direction, with PPI, Retail Sales and GDP updates offering a clearer picture of inflation, consumer demand and growth.

👉 U.S. PPI
Markets will closely watch producer inflation data, with MoM PPI expected to rebound from -0.1% to 0.3%. A hotter-than-expected print could signal underlying price pressures and reduce the likelihood of near-term Fed easing. This would likely support the U.S. dollar and push yields higher.

👉 U.S. Retail Sales
Retail sales are forecast to slow from 0.6% to 0.4%, indicating a possible cooling in consumer demand. However, if the data hold up stronger than expected, it could reinforce the narrative of economic resilience, supporting the dollar and weighing on rate cut bets.

👉 U.S. GDP
The second estimate of Q3 GDP follows a strong initial reading of 3.8%. If growth is revised higher or confirmed at robust levels, it could boost investor confidence in the U.S. economy, lifting risk sentiment and backing further USD strength.