Published 6 months ago in Trading Week Ahead

Trading Week Ahead: U.S. Shutdown Nears Possible End

The end of the longest U.S. shutdown seems increasingly likely, but it’s not confirmed yet. Market focus is shifting back to the data. UK GDP, U.S. CPI, and jobless claims headline this week’s key releases.

👉 Read the full outlook to stay ahead of the moves.

• U.K. GDP
Thursday’s GDP release offers a crucial update on the health of the UK economy. Monthly growth is expected to slow to 0.0% from a previous 0.1%, signaling a potential loss of momentum. A stronger print could bolster BoE hawks and support the pound, while a contraction may raise recession concerns and weigh on GBP crosses.

• U.S. CPI
The upcoming inflation report is this week’s standout macro release. Headline CPI is forecast to slow slightly from 0.3% to 0.2%, signaling a possible cooling in inflation pressures. A softer-than-expected print may revive market expectations of Fed easing, pressuring the dollar and supporting risk assets. Conversely, a hotter reading would reinforce the “higher for longer” rate stance and likely benefit the greenback.

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
The weekly labor market update will serve as a near-term gauge of resilience. A rise in claims could signal cooling in the labor market, enhancing speculation of a dovish Fed shift and boosting risk sentiment. Conversely, persistently low claims would reinforce the Fed’s current hawkish stance, supporting the dollar and pressuring risk assets.